Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION
1
1.1. NEED FOR MONETARY POLICY
1
Chapter 2: DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS
39
3.1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY (CBRT OR C.B. IN SHORT)
40
3.2 MONETARY POLICY TOOLS
46
3.2.1 Reserve Requirement Ratio
47
3.2.2 Bank Liquidity Requirement
58
3.2.3 Open Market Operations
72
3.2.5 Interest Rate On Deposits
80
3.2.8 Margin Requirements
86
3.2.9 Selective Credit Control
86
3.2.10 Foreign Currency Surrender Ratio
88
Appendix 1: INTERBANK MONEY MARKET - FOREIGN EXCHANGEMARKET - GOLD MARKET
91
Appendix 2: MAJOR POLICY CHANGES AND THE RELATEDSTABILIZATION PACKAGES
99
Chapter 4: TURKISH FINANCIAL SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE CBRT
129
4.1 DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS
129
4.2 FINANCIAL SERVICE INSTITUTIONS
138
4.2.1 Stock Exchanges
138
4.2.2. The Money Lending Brokers
152
4.3 OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WHICH HAVE NO AUTHORITY TO CREATEMONEY
154
4.3.1 Investment and Development Banks
154
4.3.2 Credit Cooperatives
166
4.3.3 Insurance Companies
166
4.3.5 Investment Trusts
170
4.3.6 Venture Capital Investment Trust
171
4.3.7. Real Estate Investment Trust
173
4.4. SEMIFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
174
PART IIIMONEY SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Chapter 5: MONEY SUPPLY
181
5.1. DEFINITION OF MONEY
181
5.1.1. The Conventional Approach
181
5.1.2. The Chicago Approach
182
5.1.3. The Gurley and Shaw Approach
182
5.2. MONETARY ANALYSIS AND THE ESTIMATION OF MONEY SUPPLY IN TURKEY
184
5.3. MONEY STOCK DEFINITIONS USED BY THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLICOF TURKEY
185
Chapter 6: RESERVE MONEY – MONETARY BASE AND THE CENTRALBANK MONEY
193
6.1. C.B. BALANCE SHEET (Statement)
199
6.2 RESERVE MONEY-MONETARY BASE-CENTRAL BANK MONEY
219
6.2.1 General Mechanism
223
6.2.2. C.B. Balance Sheet And Derivation Of Alternative Monetary Aggregates For Turkey
224
6.3. AVERAGE AND RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF ITS COMPONENTS TO THECHANGE IN RESERVE MONEY
229
6.4 CHOOSING THE MONETARY AGGREGATE TO BE MONITORED
230
6.4.1 Monetary Aggregate Monitored by the Central Bank
231
6.5. TARGETS OF THE 1990 MONETARY PROGRAM REGARDING THE C.B.BALANCE SHEET
232
Appendix 1: CONVERTIBLE TURKISH LIRA DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS (CTLDs)
233
Chapter 7: MONETARY EXPANSION MECHANISM
239
7.1 DEPOSIT AND LOAN MULTIPLIERS
239
7.1.1 Deposit Multiplier
239
7.1.2 Loan Multiplier
243
7.1.3 Relaxing Assumptions and the Deposit and Loan Multipliers
244
7.1.3.1 Deposit Multiplier
244
7.1.3.2 Loan Multiplier
249
7.2.1 Money Multiplier in General
252
7.2.1.1 Money Multiplier for M1
252
7.2.1.2 Money Multiplier for M2
252
7.2.2 Money Supply Prediction Using the Multiplier
253
7.2.2.1 Money Supply Prediction Using Reserves
253
7.2.2.2 Money Supply Prediction Using The High Powered Money
253
7.2.3 Money Multiplier for the Special Case of Turkey
254
7.2.3.1 Role of Government Deposits In The Money Multiplier
254
7.2.3.2 Derivation Of The Formulae Of The Money Multiplier For Turkey
255
7.3 DETERMINANTS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY
257
7.4 DERIVATION OF THE FORMULAE TO ESTIMATE THE SOURCES OF THE CHANGE INTHE MONEY STOCK
258
Chapter 8: AN APPLICATION THE MONEY STOCK DETERMINATION IN TURKEY (19962001)
265
8.1 BASE MONEY (RESERVE MONEY (RM))
268
8.2 THE MONEY MULTIPLIER
277
8.3 MONEY MULTIPLIER-MONEY SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND CONTRIBUTION OF ITS DETERMINANTS TO THE CHANGE IN MONEY SUPPLY
278
Chapter 9: THEORIES OF THE DEMAND FOR MONEY
291
9.1 THE MONETARIST APPROACH
291
9.1.1 Classical Quantity Theory
292
9.1.1.1 Irving Fisher's Version of the Classical Quantity Theory
292
9.1.1.2 Cambridge Approach (A.C. Pigou's version of the Classical Quantity Theory)
296
9.1.2 Modern Quantity Theory
298
9.2. NEOKEYNESIAN THEORIES
303
9.2.1 The Liquidity Preference Approach
304
9.2.1.1. The Liquidity Preference Approach Generally Stated
304
9.2.1.2 Regressive Expectations Model
308
9.2.1.3 Refinement in the Liquidity Preference Theory
312
9.2.2 Portfolio Balance Approach
312
9.2.3 Wealth Adjustment Approach
314
9.2.3.1 The Demand For Money Equation In The Wealth Adjustment Approach
314
9.2.3.2 Prediction of "V" and Income
315
9.3 COMPARISON OF THE DIFFERENT THEORIES OF THE DEMAND FOR MONEY
315
Chapter 10: DEMAND FOR MONEY EQUATION
321
10.1 SPECIFICATION OF THE DEMAND FOR MONEY EQUATION
321
10.2 MONEY DEMANDVELOCITYMONETARY TARGETING
324
10.2.1 ShortRun And LongRun Demand For Money Functions
325
10.2.2. The Velocity (V) Function
328
10.2.3. Velocity and Monetary Targeting
329
10.3 DATA AND EMPIRICAL PROBLEMS
329
10.3.1 Demand For Money Equation and the Identification Problem
329
10.4 THE DEMAND FOR MONEY EQUATION FOR TURKEY
336
Chapter 11: THE INTEREST RATE THEORY AND MATHEMATICS OFFINANCIAL ANALYSIS
359
11.1 THE THEORY ON THE DETERMINATION AND FUNCTIONS OF INTEREST RATE
359
11.1.1 The Classical Interest Rate Theory
359
11.1.2 Wicksell's Loanable Funds Theory
359
11.1.3 Keynesian Interest Rate Theory
360
11.1.4 HicksHansen's NeoKeynesian Synthesis
361
11.1.5 Tobin's Portfolio Theory of Interest Rate
361
11.2 MATHEMATICS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
361
11.3 INTEREST RATE DIVERGENCY ON ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
374
PART VIMONEY AND INCOME DETERMINATION
Chapter 12: MONETARY TRANSMISSION
379
12.1.1 The Interest Rate Channel
379
12.1.2. Wealth Effect Channel
382
12.1.3 Credit Rationing Channel
383
12.2. MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM UNDER DIFFERENT APPROACHES
383
12.2.1. Transmission Mechanisms under the Monetarist School
383
12.2.2 The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in NeoKeynesian Approach
388
12.3 IMPLICATIONS OF THE ALTERNATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY THEORIES
393
Appendix 1: DERIVATION OF IS AND LM CURVES
395
Chapter 13: THE MONETARY APPROACH TO BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
403
13.1. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONEY AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
404
Chapter 14: MONEY IN MACRO MODELS
407
14.1. AN INTRODUCTION TO MACRO MODELS
407
14.2 SELECTED MACRO MODELS
410
14.2.1. Examples To Monetarist Models
411
14.2.1.1 The St. Louis Model (Money Exogenous)
411
14.2.1.2 The AghevliKhan Model (Money Endogenous)
415
14.2.2 A NeoKeynesian Model: "The FRBMIT Model"
417
14.2.3 Polak Model (Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments)
420
14.2.3.2. Derivation of the Reduced Form of the Model
423
14.2.3.3. Using the Model for Prediction
425
14.2.3.4 The Application of the Polak Model to Turkey
429
PART VIIMONETARY POLICY REGIMES
Chapter 15: STABILIZATION PROGRAMS AND MONETARY POLICY
437
15.1 EXCHANGE RATE TARGETING
437
15.2 MONETARY TARGETING (MONETARY AGGREGATE TARGETING)
443
5.3 INFLATION TARGETING
450
5.4 IMPLICIT BUT NOT EXPLICIT TARGETING
452